Potential hazard of radioactive contamination of the marine environment due to possible earthquakes near the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant

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Based on geostrophic current fields calculated from altimetry data for the period from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2023, numerical modeling of the advection of potentially contaminated water from the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant to the shores of Primorsky Krai and the fishing zone around Southern Kuril Islands was carried out using a Lagrangian approach. Dasymetric maps representing probable pathways of surface ocean contamination were constructed. For the southern Primorye region, transport pathways and three corridors related to the local current structures and mesoscale eddies were identified. The minimum advection time for Lagrangian markers simulating potentially contaminated waters to reach the Primorsky Krai coast is 138–140 days. Two possible transport routes into the Southern Kuril fishing zone were revealed, with the potential for rapid advection of contaminated markers into this zone within 58–60 days. It was demonstrated that the advection of Lagrangian markers occurs in portions and within specific time windows.

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作者简介

M. Budyansky

Saint Petersburg State University; Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute

编辑信件的主要联系方式.
Email: plaztic@poi.dvo.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Saint Petersburg; Vladivostok

M. Uleysky

Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute

Email: plaztic@mail.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Vladivostok

M. Lebedeva

Saint Petersburg State University; Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute

Email: plaztic@poi.dvo.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Saint Petersburg; Vladivostok

P. Fayman

Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute

Email: plaztic@poi.dvo.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Vladivostok

T. Belonenko

Saint Petersburg State University

Email: plaztic@mail.ru
俄罗斯联邦, Saint Petersburg

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2. Fig. 1. Velocity field according to AVISO data, averaged over the period 01.01.2013 to 31.12.2023. The meridional segment of lilac color (I, 40.0°-43.0° north, 133° east) crosses the strezen of the Primorsky Current; the segment of green color (II, 43.084°-40.2° north, 145.917°-147.55° east) corresponds to the southwestern border of the South Kuril fishing zone. OC – Sakhalin, KP – Kunashir Strait, EP – Catherine Strait, LP – Laperouse Strait (Soya strait), SP – Sangaru Strait (Tsugaru strait), SP - Peter the Great Bay, 1 – Noto Peninsula, 2 – Oga Peninsula, 3 – West Sakhalin Current, 4 – Sakhalin current

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3. Fig. 2. Dasymetric maps (transport corridors of markers that have reached one of the selected segments) – possible ways of transferring potential pollution to the shores of southern Primorye and Peter the Great Bay (a) and to the South Kuril Fishing zone (b). The density of tracers v is represented on a logarithmic scale

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4. Fig. 3. Graph of the distribution of the number of “dirty” markers launched daily from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2022 near the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP, by travel time until segment I is reached.

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5. Fig. 4. Episodes of the evolution of the marker spots (shown in red) on (a) February 26 and (b) May 23, 2022, which were launched on January 5, 2022. The red triangles correspond to the centers of anticyclones, the blue triangles correspond to cyclones. The yellow crosses show hyperbolic points. [18] The gray color encodes the value of the Lagrangian indicator S, which is the length of the trajectories of passive tracers

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6. Figure 5. Graph of the distribution of the number of “dirty” markers launched daily from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2022 near the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP, by travel time until segment II is reached.

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7. Fig. 6. Episodes of the evolution of the marker spot (markers are shown in red), which were launched on October 18, 2019 to segment II – the southern border of the South Kuril fishing zone for November 23, 2019 (a) and December 15, 2019 (b). The red triangles correspond to the centers of the anticyclones, the blue triangles correspond to the centers of the anticyclones. cyclones. The yellow crosses show hyperbolic points. [18] The gray color encodes the value of the Lagrangian indicator S, which is the length of the trajectories of passive tracers

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8. 7. Diagram of the distribution of markers by launch dates and travel time from Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP to segment I (a) and segment II (b). The lower horizontal axis corresponds to the launch time. The upper horizontal axis shows the arrival time of the markers at the selected segment. The vertical axis corresponds to the time interval that the particles spend moving from the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa NPP to segments I and II. Black dots show “dirty” markers. The red lines correspond to the markers arriving at the selected segments at the same time.

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