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<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.2" xml:lang="en"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Perm Medical Journal</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="en">Perm Medical Journal</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>Пермский медицинский журнал (сетевое издание "Perm medical journal")</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn publication-format="print">0136-1449</issn><issn publication-format="electronic">2687-1408</issn><publisher><publisher-name xml:lang="en">Eco-Vector</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">702426</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.17816/pmj43259-68</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>Original studies</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Оригинальные исследования</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="article-type"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title xml:lang="en">Predicting the need for anti-allergic drugs in smoking and non-smoking patients during the grass pollen season using a mixed-effects model</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="ru"><trans-title>Прогнозирование потребности в противоаллергических препаратах у курящих и некурящих пациентов в период пыления злаков на основе модели смешанных эффектов</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4754-2862</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Devyatkova</surname><given-names>E. A.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Девяткова</surname><given-names>Е. А.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><address><country country="RU">Russian Federation</country></address><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Lecturer, Department of Public Health and Healthcare with a Сourse in Healthcare Informatization, Allergist-Immunologist</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>преподаватель кафедры общественного здоровья и здравоохранения с курсом информатизации здравоохранения, аллерголог-иммунолог</p></bio><email>lizadev94@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2573-9173</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Minaeva</surname><given-names>N. V.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Минаева</surname><given-names>Н. В.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><address><country country="RU">Russian Federation</country></address><bio xml:lang="en"><p>DSc in Medicine, Professor, Head, Department of Pediatrics with a Course in Outpatient Pediatrics</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>доктор медицинских наук, профессор, заведующая кафедрой педиатрии с курсом поликлинической педиатрии</p></bio><email>lizadev94@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9876-9202</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Lakman</surname><given-names>I. A.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Лакман</surname><given-names>И. А.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><address><country country="RU">Russian Federation</country></address><bio xml:lang="en"><p>PhD in Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Head, Laboratory for the Study of Social and Economic Problems of the Region</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>кандидат технических наук, доцент, заведующая лабораторией исследования социально-экономических проблем региона</p></bio><email>lizadev94@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5237-9863</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Tarasova</surname><given-names>M. V.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Тарасова</surname><given-names>М. В.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><address><country country="RU">Russian Federation</country></address><bio xml:lang="en"><p>PhD in Medicine, Head, Department of Allergology and Immunology</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>кандидат медицинских наук, заведующая отделением аллергологии и иммунологии</p></bio><email>lizadev94@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2318-9390</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name xml:lang="en"><surname>Devyatkova</surname><given-names>G. I.</given-names></name><name xml:lang="ru"><surname>Девяткова</surname><given-names>Г. И.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><address><country country="RU">Russian Federation</country></address><bio xml:lang="en"><p>DSc in (Medicine), Professor, Department of Public Health and Healthcare with a Course in Healthcare Informatization</p></bio><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>доктор медицинских наук, профессор кафедры общественного здоровья и здравоохранения с курсом информатизации здравоохранения</p></bio><email>lizadev94@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff1"><aff><institution xml:lang="en">Ye.A. Vagner Perm State Medical University</institution></aff><aff><institution xml:lang="ru">Пермский государственный медицинский университет имени академика Е.А. Вагнера</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff2"><aff><institution xml:lang="en">Perm Regional Clinical Hospital</institution></aff><aff><institution xml:lang="ru">Пермская краевая клиническая больница</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff3"><aff><institution xml:lang="en">Ufa University of Science and Technology</institution></aff><aff><institution xml:lang="ru">Уфимский университет науки и технологий</institution></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2026-05-14" publication-format="electronic"><day>14</day><month>05</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>43</volume><issue>2</issue><issue-title xml:lang="en"/><issue-title xml:lang="ru"/><fpage>59</fpage><lpage>68</lpage><history><date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2026-02-09"><day>09</day><month>02</month><year>2026</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement xml:lang="en">Copyright ©; 2026, Eco-Vector</copyright-statement><copyright-statement xml:lang="ru">Copyright ©; 2026, Эко-Вектор</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Eco-Vector</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Эко-Вектор</copyright-holder><ali:free_to_read xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/"/><license><ali:license_ref xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/">https://eco-vector.com/for_authors.php#07</ali:license_ref></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://permmedjournal.ru/PMJ/article/view/702426">https://permmedjournal.ru/PMJ/article/view/702426</self-uri><abstract xml:lang="en"><p><bold>Objective.</bold> To analyze the clinical course of allergic rhinitis and conjunctivitis and the extent of drug therapy among smoking and non-smoking patients, and to estimate the need for antiallergic drugs in these patients during the grass pollen season using statistical modeling tools.</p> <p><bold>Materials and methods.</bold> The prospective observational study included 27 patients (7 of whom were smokers) aged 18–44 years with a confirmed diagnosis of hay fever and sensitization to grass pollen, examined during the exacerbation period from June 6 to July 26, 2023 (a total of 1,377 observations). A mixed model with fixed and random effects was developed to assess treatment need.</p> <p><bold>Results.</bold> It was established that during the exacerbation of hay fever, the symptoms of allergic rhinitis and conjunctivitis were more pronounced in smokers than in non-smokers, as assessed by symptom scores and the extent of therapy. A one-point increase in such symptoms as nasal discharge, nasal congestion, nasal itching, and eye itching was associated with a higher probability of taking antiallergic drugs. Smokers of conventional cigarettes had a 10.7-fold higher need for therapy.</p> <p><bold>Conclusions</bold><bold>.</bold> The constructed mixed model showed that smoking conventional cigarettes increases the need for antiallergic drugs in patients with sensitization to grass pollen during exacerbation of hay fever.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="ru"><p><bold>Цель.</bold> Проанализировать клиническое течение аллергического ринита, конъюнктивита и объем медикаментозной терапии среди курящих и некурящих пациентов и оценить потребность в противоаллергических препаратах у этих пациентов в период пыления злаков с использованием инструментов статистического моделирования.</p> <p><bold>Материалы и методы.</bold> В проспективном наблюдательном исследовании приняли участие 27 пациентов (из них семь курильщиков) в возрасте 18–44 лет с установленным диагнозом поллиноза и сенсибилизацией к злаковым травам в период обострения с 6 июня по 26 июля 2023 г. (всего 1377 наблюдений). Для оценки потребности в лечении построили смешанную модель с фиксированными и случайными эффектами.</p> <p><bold>Результаты.</bold> Установлено, что в период обострения поллиноза симптомы аллергического ринита и конъюнктивита у курящих пациентов более выражены, чем у некурящих, по результатам балльной оценки симптомов и объема терапии. При усилении на один балл таких симптомов, как выделения из носа, заложенность носа, зуд в носовой полости и зуд в глазах, увеличивалась вероятность приема противоаллергических препаратов. У курильщиков традиционных сигарет потребность в терапии была выше в 10,7 раза.</p> <p><bold>Выводы.</bold> Построенная смешанная модель позволила установить, что курение традиционных сигарет увеличивает потребность в противоаллергических препаратах у пациентов с сенсибилизацией к злаковым травам в период обострения поллиноза.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Hay fever</kwd><kwd>allergic diseases</kwd><kwd>smoking</kwd><kwd>grasses</kwd><kwd>mixed model</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>Поллиноз</kwd><kwd>аллергические заболевания</kwd><kwd>курение</kwd><kwd>злаки</kwd><kwd>смешанная модель</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group/></article-meta></front><body></body><back><ref-list><ref id="B1"><label>1.</label><mixed-citation>Салагай О.О., Сахарова Г.М., Антонов Н.С. Структура потребления табачных и никотинсодержащих изделий среди населения Российской Федерации. Пульмонология 2020; 30 (4): 453–462. 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