Does Russian gas have a future in China?

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The article presents an analysis of the current state and forecasts for the long-term development of the Chinese natural gas market, as well as prospects for increasing the supply of fossil fuels to this market.

It is expected that by the end of 2030, China can catch up and overtake Europe in gas consumption. By 2030, the total demand for gas in the Middle Kingdom will be 390–560 billion cubic meters. m, which is almost 1.5 times higher than the 2022 level.

During a period of economic slowdown, the imbalance of supply and demand on the global hydrocarbon market leads to destabilization. In order to predict such situations in advance, specialists from international and Russian organizations (International Energy Agency, BP plc, Institute of Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan) and consulting companies (IHS Markit) periodically prepare works on the evolution of global energy markets and the consequences for the largest countries. gas consumers. Almost all studies are not yet ready to name the period of peak gas demand in China in the foreseeable future, which gives grounds to call the 21st century the century of gas transformation.

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Sobre autores

Dmitriy Kondratov

Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS)

Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: dmikondratov@yandex.ru

Ph.D. in Economics, Leading Researcher

Rússia, Moscow

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2. Fig.1. Gas production in China, billion cubic meters. m. Sources: [2], [4].

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3. Fig.2. Structure of gas consumption in China, billion cubic meters. m. Sources: [2], [4].

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4. Fig.3. Structure of gas imports by China, billion cubic meters. m. Sources: [2], [4], [7].

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5. Fig.4. Average annual import price for gas in various directions, USD/thousand cube m. Sources: compiled from [2], [4], [7].

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6. Fig.5. Forecast of pipeline gas supplies along the Central Asia - China route (base scenario), billion cubic meters. m. Sources: compiled from [2], [4], [7].

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7. Fig.6. Forecast of pipeline gas supplies along the Central Asia - China route (optimistic scenario), billion cubic meters. m. Sources: compiled from [2], [4], [7].

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8. Fig.7. Structure of LNG imports by China, million tons Sources: compiled from [2], [4], [7].

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9. Fig.8. Contracted LNG supplies from Russian projects, million tons Source: [4].

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10. Fig.9. Forecast of gas consumption in China, billion cubic meters. m. Sources: [5], [6], [8], [10], [13], [17].

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Declaração de direitos autorais © Russian Academy of Sciences, 2024