Assessment of the prospects of oil and gas-bearing areas in the waters of the Sea of Okhotsk based on the results of the application of probabilistic and statistical analysis of geological and geophysical data

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The article presents the results of the application of the probabilistic and statistical method of forecasting the prospects of oil and gas-bearing areas in the waters of the Sea of Okhotsk. The method is based on the use of a preliminary analysis of statistical series of several different types of geological and geophysical parameters. The object of the study of this article is the local concentric structures in the waters of the Sea of Okhotsk. The subject of this article is the forecast of oil and gas bearing areas. The results of using a probabilistic statistical method for predicting the prospects of oil and gas-bearing areas for four types of different geological and geophysical data (crustal thickness, lithosphere thickness, sedimentary rock thickness, heat flux values) measured within the location of fifteen local concentric structures in the Sea of Okhotsk are considered. Based on these data, statistical histograms of the spatial distribution of the values of the thickness of the earth’s crust, the thickness of the lithosphere, and the values of heat flux were previously constructed according to measurements in the main oil-producing regions of the Okhotsk, Black, and Caspian Seas. As a result, using the probabilistic forecasting method, the values of the probability distribution densities were calculated according to the data of various four geological and geophysical parameters. According to the calculated probability values for fifteen concentric structures of the Sea of Okhotsk, according to four types of geological and geophysical parameters, a summary data table was compiled and eight local concentric structures promising for the search for new oil and gas fields were identified.

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About the authors

Andrey L. Kharitonov

Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio Wave Propagation of Russian Academy of Sciences

Author for correspondence.
Email: ahariton@izmiran.ru
ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0843-452X

Candidate of Sciences in Physics and Mathematics, Leading Researcher

Russian Federation, Moscow

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Supplementary files

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2. Fig. 1. Crustal thickness map of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk region [9, with additions by the author]. Legend: a – predicted oil and gas bearing regions (OGBR) in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk, associated with concentric structures (CS); b – the largest oil and gas fields in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk; c – epicenters of deep earthquakes that have occurred since 1965, with an indication of their depth (km). The sizes of the signs reflect the magnitude (4.0–6.5) of the earthquakes; The circles indicate the locations of CS associated with predicted OGR in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk: 1 – North Sakhalin; 2 – South Sakhalin; 3 – West Kamchatka; 4 – Magadan; 5 – Shantarskaya; 6 – Deryuginskaya; 7 – Tinrovskaya; 8 – Golyginskaya; 9 – South Okhotsk; 10 – Middle Kuril; 11 – Central Okhotsk; 12 – Tatar

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3. Fig. 2. Fragment of the map of isolines of the lithosphere thickness (Hl) for the territory of the Okhotsk Sea region [11, with additions by the author]. Legend: 1 – isolines of the lithosphere thickness values; 2 – state border of the Russian Federation; 3 – location of the CS. For the numbers and names of the CS, see the caption to Fig. 1

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4. Fig. 3. Fragment of the heat flow map of the Russian Federation [14, with additions by the author]

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5. Fig. 4. Histograms typical for all promising oil and gas fields in the Sea of ​​Okhotsk (including the fields in operation in the North Sakhalin Oil and Gas Field), constructed using the following types of GGD: A – crustal thickness N(Hk) according to the digitized map [9]; B – lithosphere thickness N(Hl) in the western part of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk according to the digitized map [11]; B – lithosphere thickness N(Hl) in the central and eastern parts of the Sea of ​​Okhotsk according to the digitized map [11]; G – sedimentary layer rock thickness according to the digitized map [13]; D – heat flow values ​​N(Q) according to the digitized map data [14]

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6. Fig. 5. The theoretical distribution density curve p(f), corresponding to the normal law (Gaussian) of distribution of the values ​​of the crustal thickness (Hk), the values ​​of the lithosphere thickness (Hl), characteristic of the Okhotsk Sea NGO. S0 is the region of rejection of the hypothesis about the presence of an anomaly (f0 = Hk = 27 km); S1 is the region of acceptance of the hypothesis about the presence of an anomaly (f0 = Hk = 27±5 km); 1 – α is the probability of an error of the first kind; 2 – β – probability of type II error; 3 – h – decision threshold value

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